Forecast Skill Cards

Per-catchment model performance metrics with published validation methodology. Every model is held to transparent quality gates and cross-validated on historical observations.

Methodology

  • R² — Coefficient of determination on held-out test set (15% of data)
  • CV R² — 5-fold TimeSeriesSplit cross-validation (chronological)
  • MAE / RMSE — Mean absolute / root-mean-square error in metres
  • Quality gates — Reject if R² < 0 (worse than mean) or CV R² < 0 (worse than persistence)
  • Training window — 13+ years of hourly data (2013-2026)
  • Horizons — 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 48h, 72h, 96h, 120h, 168h (7 days)
  • Models ensemble — XGBoost, LightGBM, RandomForest, GradientBoosting, Ridge
  • Confidence bands — Conformal prediction (90% coverage, regime-stratified)
  • NWP rainfall — Future forecast rainfall from Open-Meteo included as features
  • Tidal handling — Multi-constituent harmonic analysis via utide library

Hawkesbury-Nepean River Catchment

Greater Sydney
8
Stations
539
Models Trained
0.987
Avg R² @ 1h
0.637
Avg R² @ 24h
0.427
Avg R² @ 72h
Station River R² 1h R² 6h R² 24h R² 72h Models
Camden Weir
212216		 Nepean River 0.997 0.970 0.597 0.615 147/147
Wallacia Weir
212202		 Nepean River 0.998 0.966 0.582 0.564 60/60
Penrith Weir
212201		 Nepean River 0.998 0.980 0.842 0.556 84/84
North Richmond
212200		 Hawkesbury River 0.985 0.894 0.708 0.451 61/61
Windsor
212903		 Hawkesbury River 0.996 0.930 0.710 0.371 72/72
Sackville
212406 · tidal		 Hawkesbury River 0.967 0.890 0.556 0.160 47/47
Lower Portland
212407 · tidal		 Hawkesbury River 0.979 0.844 0.691 0.695 41/41
Webbs Creek
212408 · tidal		 Hawkesbury River 0.980 0.844 0.412 0.004 27/27

Daintree River Catchment

Far North Queensland
1
Stations
28
Models Trained
0.845
Avg R² @ 1h
0.340
Avg R² @ 24h
0.150
Avg R² @ 72h
Station River R² 1h R² 6h R² 24h R² 72h Models
Daintree Village
531110 · tidal		 Daintree River 0.845 0.659 0.340 0.150 28/28

Lismore City Council Catchment

Richmond
2
Stations
47
Models Trained
0.998
Avg R² @ 1h
0.575
Avg R² @ 24h
0.243
Avg R² @ 72h
Station River R² 1h R² 6h R² 24h R² 72h Models
Lismore (Wilsons River)
203900		 Wilsons River 0.998 0.958 0.575 0.243 47/47
Casino
203010		 Richmond River — — — — 0/0

Brisbane River Catchment

South East Queensland
1
Stations
3
Models Trained
—
Avg R² @ 1h
—
Avg R² @ 24h
0.216
Avg R² @ 72h
Station River R² 1h R² 6h R² 24h R² 72h Models
Brisbane City Gauge
540198		 Brisbane River — — — 0.216 3/3

Lake Conjola Catchment

South Coast NSW
1
Stations
3
Models Trained
—
Avg R² @ 1h
0.950
Avg R² @ 24h
—
Avg R² @ 72h
Station River R² 1h R² 6h R² 24h R² 72h Models
Lake Conjola
216420 · tidal		 Lake Conjola — 0.995 0.950 — 3/3

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